France won every match at the World Cup before losing to Spain in the semifinal. Then, in Deschamps’ final game in charge, they lost 4-6 to England in the third-place playoff. Already under Zidane, they opened their Nations League campaign with a win over Turkey thanks to Mbappé’s only goal, which he scored at the cost of an injury. Against neighboring Belgium, they repeated the 1-0 scoreline, finally breaking their opponents late in the game.
Italy missed out on a third consecutive World Cup: despite changing coaches, they had no chance in qualifying and surrendered top spot in the group to Norway. Then, in the playoffs in March, after beating Northern Ireland, they lost to Bosnia on penalties following a 1-1 draw. With Mancini back in charge, they began their Nations League campaign against Belgium and suffered a 0-2 defeat. They managed to redeem themselves against Turkey, securing a dominant 4-1 victory.
Mbappé and company score an average of 2.2 goals per game, but they also concede plenty — one per match. Their long-time rivals average 1.8 goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
Previous matches: France – Italy
The current hosts have won four of their last five head-to-head meetings, suffering just one defeat.
The clearly stronger team is playing at home. They will beat their rebuilding neighbors with a “-1 goal” handicap (odds – 1.7).
France – Italy: key statistics and trends
France have won nine of their last eleven matches
30% of France’s matches end with both teams scoring, while the average total goals per match is 3.2
Italy have won four of their last six matches
40% of Italy’s matches end with both teams scoring, while the average total goals per match is 2.7
France – Italy: possible starting lineups
France play in a 1-4-3-3 formation (possible lineup): Maignan – Kalulu, Jaouen, Lukeba, Diouf – Akliouche, Camavinga, da Cunha – Doué, Lepo, Barcola
Italy play in a 1-4-3-3 formation (possible lineup): Donnarumma – Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Ruggeri – Frattesi, Tonali, Fagioli – Raspadori, Francesco Pio Esposito, Sebastiano Esposito
