Barca look to rebound from European heartbreak and take a decisive step towards the league title

Following a heartbreaking defeat to Inter Milan in extra-time to end their Champions League journey at the semi-final stage, Barcelona are set to play the biggest game of the season as they welcome Real Madrid to the Montjuïc Olympic Stadium for the fourth and final El Clásico of the campaign on Sunday afternoon.

Barça come into this one with a four-point lead at the top of the table, and a victory over their biggest rivals would extend the gap to seven points and secure the head-to-head tiebreaker, which basically means the Catalans can virtually wrap up the league title this weekend and would need just two points from their final three matches to mathematically clinch the championship.

The Blaugrana will also have the head-to-head tiebreaker in their favor with a draw or even a three-goal loss, all thanks to their incredible 4-0 win in the reverse fixture at the Bernabéu. Securing the head-to-head is absolutely crucial, especially in case of a defeat, because Madrid would have to finish ahead of Barça to win the title.

With the head-to-head in their pocket Barça can be champions even if the two sides finish with the same number of points after the last matchday, so they can still control their destiny as long as they don’t lose in embarrassing fashion.

But the only thought going through the minds of Hansi Flick and his players is winning on Sunday: it’s the best way to bounce back from one of the most painful losses in recent Barça memory, and a way to show their mental strength and resilience once again.

There’s no doubt everyone is beyond exhausted after 120 brutal minutes in Italy and a marathon of a season so far, but they must find a way to muster enough energy to finish the job on Sunday.

Barça have won all three meetings this season by a combined score of 12-4, but their most recent clash in the Copa del Rey Final was the closest one yet: the Catalans needed a late miracle and a heroic extra-time effort by Jules Kounde to win in Seville after being thoroughly outplayed in the second half, and Carlo Ancelotti may have finally found the formula to solve the Hansi Flick puzzle.

The introduction of Arda Güler and the switch to a basic 4-4-2 formation with Kylian Mbappé and Vinicius up top created all kinds of problems for the Blaugrana, with Mbappé finally figuring out a way to not be offside against the Catalans’ high line and Vinicius using his pace and skill to dribble past the slower Barça defense and create plenty of danger.

Barça did dominate the first half and could — and probably should — have been up at least two goals against 10 men, but Madrid created an awful environment for the referee with their pre-match antics and were given full license to cross the line from physical defense to straight up violence at times.

We don’t know if Los Blancos will be given the same leeway this time around, but we do know their defense is severely weakened: all of their best defenders are out for the season due to injury, and Barça must take advantage of the fact that Lucas Vázquez and Fran García, who are defensively challenged at best, will likely start at full-back and try to mark Raphinha and Lamine Yamal.

The wings are the whole key to this one: if Barça can control Mbappé, Vinicius and Güler and dominate Vázquez and García, they will win.

Simple as that. But if the trend from the second half of the Cup Final continues, things will be much tougher and Madrid will have a real chance to pull off the upset at Montjüic and put enormous pressure on Barça to win all three games in their brutal remaining schedule (Espanyol away, Villarreal at home, Athletic Bilbao away) to secure the title.

A draw is not a bad result. At all. Barça can’t play for a draw, of course, but they can be satisfied if that’s the result at the end of the 90 minutes. As long as they don’t lose, they stay in full control of the title race. They need to learn the lessons from everything that went wrong at the end of the game in Milan, and be prepared to manage another tough contest that will decide their season.

Barcelona (4-2-3-1): Szczesny; Eric, Cubarsí, Iñigo, Martín; De Jong, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Raphinha; Ferran.

Real Madrid (4-4-2): Courtois; Vázquez, Asencio, Tchouameni, García; Güler, Ceballos, Valverde, Bellingham; Mbappé, Vinicius.