At home, Barcelona currently has one loss in the last five matches

Following a dramatic last-second win over Girona in La Liga at the weekend, Barcelona return to action with their third match in the League Phase of this season’s Champions League as the Blaugrana welcome Greek champions Olympiacos to the Montjuïc Olympic Stadium on Tuesday’s early kickoff.

Barça come into this one in desperate need of a win to return to contention for a Top 8 spot in the standings after a heartbreaking loss to PSG last month that has the Blaugrana in one of the Playoff spots before the start of Matchday 3. Avoiding the Playoff and the extra two matches it brings is an absolute must in what is already a crazy calendar, so Barça cannot afford to drop any more points in the six remaining League Phase matches.

And they will be big favorites to pick up all three points on Tuesday: Olympiacos are off to a slow start so far, with only one point from the first two games without a single goal and a total of 6 shots on target combined in the opening two matches. They lost 2-0 to Arsenal in London last time out, but should have lost by a lot more on a night where the Gunners dominated and had a ton of chances to win by an even bigger margin.

But Olympiacos might prove a tougher opponent for Barça than they were for Arsenal for a couple of reasons: one, Barça are in worse form and still missing several key starters; the other, Olympiacos’ manager knows Barça quite well.

José Luis Mendilibar is a veteran coach with a ton of La Liga experience, and he made his name as the coach of Eibar where he was able to coach a small club with almost zero investment through a period of success in which they comfortably avoided relegation and even bothered the big boys a few times.

Mendilibar’s Eibar were always a tough opponent for Barça, and the games between the two followed a familiar script: Eibar sat deep, caused trouble on the counter, and always felt like they were close to pulling off an upset before Lionel Messi scored two, three or four goals and turned a hard-fought game into an easy win on paper thanks to his brilliance.

Eibar and Mendilibar were some of Messi’s favorite La Liga victims, but anyone who remembers those games knows that without the GOAT Barça could have very easily not won a few of those games thanks to the resolute nature of a well-organized Mendilibar defense.

The coach has a much different squad at his disposal this time but his strategy stays the same against big clubs: defend deep, be dangerous on the counter, and look to limit the damage of the opposition’s attack. Olympiacos also have a few quick and skilled wingers and a tough, physical striker who’s really good in the air, so they have the tools to cause Barça’s high line problems if the Catalans continue to struggle with their high-risk defensive system.

Barça should find a way to win this, but it won’t be the walk in the park many expect. Olympiacos are tough and well-coached, Barça are missing a lot of talent, and they’re not exactly firing on all cylinders right now. This is more about the ability to grind out a result than looking amazing, and they also have to make sure there are no more injuries to worry about with El Clásico just around the corner.